What’s Really Driving the Spring Market? Tariffs, Elections, or Something Else?

A small pink bud is blooming on a tree branch.

With the Spring Market just around the corner, you might be wondering: Will economic uncertainty put the brakes on home prices, or will government intervention send the market soaring again? It’s a big question, and like most things in real estate, the answer isn’t black and white.

Let’s break down the key factors shaping the market this season—without the financial jargon.

Will Economic Uncertainty Cool the Spring Market?

Between job losses, inflation, and rising costs, it’s fair to wonder if home prices might take a hit. When people feel less financially secure, they tend to hit “pause” on big purchases, including real estate.

But here’s the twist—government support measures could actually boost demand. The federal government has hinted at introducing financial relief to counter the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian industries (think: pandemic-style stimulus). If history is any indication, more financial support often means more buyers entering the market, which could push home prices up again.

What Are the Experts Saying?

The latest market projections suggest a mixed bag of cooling pressures and pent-up demand.

✅ CMHC: Despite economic headwinds, lower mortgage rates and updated lending rules introduced in 2024 are expected to help more buyers enter the market.

✅ BMO Economics: Prices and sales should rise modestly into 2025, with mortgage rates possibly dipping below 4%. However, don’t expect major drops—unless an economic shock shakes things up.

Bottom line? The real estate market isn’t slowing down just yet.

The Other Wildcards: Elections, Confidence & The U.S. Influence

Economic policies aren’t the only thing making buyers and sellers hesitant right now. There’s also the political uncertainty factor—and we all know how much that can impact real estate.

🔹 Election Year Jitters: A federal election is on the horizon, and policy shifts could impact mortgage rules, interest rates, and housing supply. Buyers and sellers are waiting to see how things unfold.

🔹 Consumer Confidence Is Shaky: Some are holding off due to uncertainty, while others see this as an opportunity to jump in before rates rise again.

🔹 The U.S. Effect: What happens south of the border affects us, too. Political and economic uncertainty in the U.S. often sends ripples through the Canadian housing market.

What Does This Mean for Buyers & Sellers in Guelph?

The reality? This spring could be a moment of opportunity. If mortgage rates continue to ease and more financial support enters the market, we could see another wave of demand—which means getting in early could be a smart move.

For sellers, pricing strategically and preparing your home well will be key to attracting serious buyers in an uncertain market.

For buyers, staying informed and getting pre-approved now will help you move quickly when the right home comes up.

Final Thoughts: What Happens Next?

Instead of asking whether the market will slow down, the better question is: How will government policies and economic shifts shape the months ahead?

No matter where you are in your real estate journey, we’re keeping a close eye on the trends so you don’t have to. If you have questions about what this all means for your plans—let’s chat!

📩 Get in touch today, and let’s navigate this market together.